Aviatics expert on air travel after Corona

How hygienic will flying be in the future? What new ideas are there for more protection in the cabin? A renowned aviation expert provides answers – and says why she expects longer-term consequences for the passengers, as happened after 9/11.

Marisa Garcia is regarded as a profound expert in the aviation industry. The Spaniard worked in the industry herself from 1994 to 2010, and has been writing about it as a journalist ever since. Her assessments are published regularly in the US magazine "Forbes". The expert spoke to CH Media via video telephony about the obligation to wear masks for passengers, new laws for airlines and the future of Swiss.

Aviation is practically at a standstill. How quickly will it get back into its swing?
Marisa Garcia: This depends primarily on the travel restrictions that will be imposed. I think it will take at least five years to reach the volume of air traffic we had before the crisis. The health concerns will not disappear until there is a vaccine. And even then, the fear of contagion persists among many travellers. Many people will avoid air travel if it’s not absolutely necessary.

And that means?
For a long period, planes will not fly with as many passengers as before: there will hardly have more than 80% capacity on board, probably no more than 70%. In the long term, I could imagine that certain airlines will redesign their interiors, with more separation between the seats and rows. In general, the separations on board will increase.

At least some good news for economy passengers then, finally more legroom!
Possibly, especially if any corresponding laws are passed. The airlines will oppose this, of course. Fewer passengers means less revenue. Some airlines are currently leaving the middle seat empty in rows of three, as well as the neighbouring seat. This is likely to remain the case for several months. Whereby the distance between one row and the next remains the same. As a possible solution, an Italian company has therefore suggested fitting a Plexiglas hood that could be placed over existing seats. You could also rearrange the seats in opposite directions.

But?
All of this costs a lot of money. And the airlines don’t have that at the moment. But the flights will hardly be profitable if the aircraft are only two-thirds or less full - and there will thereby be a shortage of even more money.

According to figures from the industry, the airlines achieve the break-even point with a capacity utilisation of 59%, so they can usually cover the costs of the flight. This should be possible for one year, but not for all the airlines. They will then have to try to make up for passenger losses with more cargo revenue.

And otherwise, there will be the threat of imminent price increases?
That would be a good thing, because the price war reached an unhealthy level in the past. But I have my doubts as to whether this will happen. Because, in their panic to fill as many seats on their flights as possible, many airlines will offer low prices. In the coming months, however, ’bait offers’ of this kind would be irresponsible from a socio-political point of view, as long as no vaccine has been found.

Plexiglas panes and new seating arrangements for better hygiene on board? This is how the Italian company Aviointeriors sees the future of the cabin.
 

The vaccine is one thing. What about the social distancing measures during the trip? Will they remain?
That would not surprise me. Just as additional security checks became the norm after 9/11, the Covid 19 crisis could also lead to longer-term measures, both at airports and on board. The Chinese authorities have given clues as to what the future of travel might look like. The Chinese measure the temperature of the passengers, possibly soon including biometric data. The last rows on board are reserved as a quarantine zone in case a passenger becomes ill during a longer flight. The supply of food and drinks is also restricted. The flight attendants therefore no longer have to walk up and down the aisles, and have less direct contact. But what would such rules mean for the flight experience and the ticket prices? All this is still unclear.

The cleaning should be intensified at the very least.
Yes, that is to be assumed. The planes will be cleaned even more thoroughly overnight. There are also considerations in the industry to use ultraviolet light to kill viruses. It is therefore possible that every time a passenger leaves the toilet, UV light could be turned on before the next passenger enters the toilet. It could also be used in the cabin itself. And, of course, disinfecting sprays are also a variant that is already in use today. I also think that wearing masks will become standard, and people will have to get used to it, as in Asia after the Sars crisis.

How much will the market change?
Consolidation is guaranteed. Some airlines are already bankrupt, or just about to become so, such as South African Airways, Virgin Australia or Norwegian. But many states will try to support their main airlines.

Even Alitalia, which has been ailing for years?
I think so, and I can understand that, because the airlines are important employers. Would you rather have a loss-making airline or thousands of additional unemployed people? The question is difficult.

Lufthansa subsidiary Swiss also needs the help of the state. How do you assess its future?

The Swiss is a great airline. But could it disappear as part of consolidation? It would be theoretically possible for the Lufthansa Group to say: OK, we are only relying on the Lufthansa brand, no longer on Swiss, Austrian or Brussels. I hope that this won’t happen, and I also don’t believe it will. But nothing can be ruled out, especially if the crisis lasts much longer than currently expected. Things will be most difficult for the more luxurious airlines without government cover, such as Virgin Atlantic, owned by billionaire Richard Branson. The airline is more about lifestyle and luxury, and governments are unlikely to help them.

And what about the low-cost airlines?
Easyjet and Ryanair are both sitting on a lot of cash. They should be able to bridge the crisis to some extent. In the medium to long term, however, they too will have to rethink their business model and increasingly have to provide cargo services, instead of just flying tourists from point A to point B for €19 or less.

They are threatened with increasing competition from the expanded train network in Europe, however.
This is certainly the case for certain distances, but this is not due to health reasons arising from the Covid-19 pandemic. The idea that you are safer on board trains is incorrect, however. The distances to other passengers are similar, and passengers even sit opposite each other in some cases.